After producing the July portfolio update a few days ago, we came away from the exercise with mixed feelings. Our plan to invest around $9,000 USD per month for the next 24 months is great and all but we don’t like the market today. The S&P is hitting all-time highs now and it seems like the potential for a black swan event has never been greater.
The coming U.S. presidential election is just 3 months away and we would expect high volatility around this time. Because we already have over $180.000 invested in our Quantigence DGI Portfolio at the moment, we’re going to turn down our purchases for the next 3 months and resume when we see a market correction. Yes, this is market timing but time is on our side and the $207,000 we have left to invest can wait.
So what is our cash position looking like right now? Here’s a breakdown of what we have in the way of cash and other investments.
– U.S. Checking Account: $58,985 USD
– U.K Brokerage Account: $20,623 USD
So in liquid cash we have $79,608. We also have the below payments coming in this month to cash:
– Landlord Rent Deposit Return: $3,856
– Landlord Rent Refund (moving out early): $964
– July Savings: $7,200
So that gives us an additional $12,020 which brings our liquid cash to $91,628. Now let’s look at other places we’ve stored our cash in the form of investments.
– SGD (Singapore dollar): $11,110 USD
– XONE: $1,976
– QCOM: $3,049
– NANO and CAR: $1297
– ILMN: $8250
– EDIT: $750
– GLD: $4,407
– APPL: $12,196
Now some of these companies like APPL/ILMN/QCOM we want to hold for a very long time because we want to place specific bets on their technology offerings. A few of the others (NANO/CAR/XONE) we didn’t sell when we incurred heavy losses and are now “stuck” with these positions. As for SGD, we were hedging against USD weakening and want to continue holding this until the position turns positive. This means we’re holding $43,035 in investments that could be liquidated to cash.
So with the $183,000 in our Quantigence DGI Portfolio and the $134,663 we have in cash and investments, we’re $82,337 dollars short of our $400,000 goal. Here is how we want to make that up.
– August 2016: $7,200
– September 2016: Taxes
– October 2016: Taxes
– November 2016: $5,510
– December 2016: $7,200
– January 2017: $7,200
– February 2017: $7,200
– February 2017 Company Bonus: $24,000
– March 2017: $7,200
– April 2017: $7,200
– May 2017: $7,200
– June 2017: Taxes
– July 2017: Taxes
– August 2017: $5,510
– September 2017: $7,200
– October 2017: $7,200
That’s an additional $99,820 that more than covers the $82,337 shortfall that we’re facing to get to that $400,000 Quantigence DGI Portfolio. Of course we could be laid off any time just like our many colleagues who have been replaced by Mumbai robots. If that happens, we’re looking at around a $60,000 severance package so we’d still be able to get to a portfolio size of $375,000. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen though!